The 90th Academy Awards are this Sunday (8 PM ET, ABC) at the Dolby Theater in Hollywood, and at press time, it’s a close race for the Best Picture Oscar between Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (–115) and The Shape of Water (+140). Get Out is a distant third-favorite at +550.
The other major Oscar races are far less competitive. Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water) is a heavy –1000 favorite to win Best Director; Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) and Frances McDormand (Three Billboards) are even heavier at –2500 to win Best Actor and Best Actress. Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards) is –800 to win Best Supporting Actor, while Allison Janney (I, Tonya) is –600 in the Best Supporting Actress category.
While The Shape of Water leads the pack with 13 Oscar nominations, it appears Three Billboards has the inside track for Best Picture, after winning at the Golden Globes, the SAG Awards, and two weeks ago at the BAFTAs. The Shape of Water swept the guild awards for producers, directors and editors. Of the remaining seven nominees, Lady Bird is a compelling dark horse at +1400, taking down Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes.