Category: MLB

Outrights

1. New York Yankees: 4.98 (15.79 %)2. Los Angeles Dodgers: 5.35 (14.71 %)3. Houston Astros: 7.17 (10.98 %)4. New York Mets: 7.97 (9.88 %)5. San Diego Padres: 11.4 (6.9 %)6. Toronto Blue Jays: 13.2 (5.96 %)7. Atlanta Braves: 14.08 (5.59 %)8. Milwaukee Brewers: 14.42 (5.46 %)9. Boston Red Sox: 24.33 (3.23 %)10. Tampa Bay Rays: 26.07 (3.02 %)11. Minnesota Twins: 27.2 (2.89 %)12. Chicago White Sox: 27.33 (2.88 %)13. St.Louis Cardinals: 27.87 (2.82 %)14. San Francisco Giants: 28.2 (2.79 %)15. Philadelphia Phillies: 34.6 (2.27 %)16. Cleveland Guardians: 53.47 (1.47 %)17. Los Angeles Angels: 68.13 (1.15 %)18. Seattle Mariners: 131.13 (0.6 %)19. Miami Marlins: 192.8 (0.41 %)20. Texas Rangers: 215.8 (0.36 %)21. Arizona Diamondbacks: 565.8 (0.14 %)22. Colorado Rockies: 615.8 (0.13 %)23. Pittsburgh Pirates: 615.8 (0.13 %)24. Chicago Cubs: 669.13 (0.12 %)25. Detroit Tigers: 829.13 (0.09 %)26. Baltimore Orioles: 1239.13 (0.06 %)27. Kansas City Royals: 1239.13 (0.06 %)28. Oakland Athletics: 2145.8 (0.04 %)29. Washington Nationals: 2445.8 (0.03 %)30. Cincinnati Reds: 2445.8 (0.03 %)

Probabilities (fivethirtyeight.com)

team	division	record	now	playoffs	win division	win league
Los Angeles Dodgers	NL West	102-60	45-26	99%	78%	22%
New York Yankees	AL East	107-55	53-20	>99%	94%	22%
Houston Astros	AL West	98-64	45-27	98%	96%	10%
Atlanta Braves	NL East	92-70	42-32	79%	30%	6%
New York Mets	NL East	96-66	47-27	94%	61%	6%
San Diego Padres	NL West	94-68	45-30	88%	19%	6%
Toronto Blue Jays	AL East	91-71	40-32	81%	2%	5%
Milwaukee Brewers	NL Central	91-71	42-33	79%	64%	4%
Boston Red Sox	AL East	89-73	42-31	73%	3%	4%
Philadelphia Phillies	NL East	87-75	39-35	52%	9%	2%
Minnesota Twins	AL Central	86-76	41-33	60%	43%	2%
Tampa Bay Rays	AL East	87-75	40-32	57%	<1%	2%
St. Louis Cardinals	NL Central	87-75	41-34	57%	35%	2%
Chicago White Sox	AL Central	84-78	34-37	44%	27%	2%
San Francisco Giants	NL West	86-76	39-33	45%	3%	2%
Cleveland Guardians	AL Central	84-78	36-32	45%	29%	1%
Los Angeles Angels	AL West	79-83	35-40	17%	2%	<1%
Seattle Mariners	AL West	79-83	34-40	13%	1%	<1%
Texas Rangers	AL West	77-85	34-37	9%	<1%	<1%
Miami Marlins	NL East	77-85	33-38	5%	<1%	<1%
Baltimore Orioles	AL East	70-92	34-40	1%	<1%	<1%
Arizona Diamondbacks	NL West	70-92	33-41	<1%	<1%	<1%
Cincinnati Reds	NL Central	67-95	25-47	<1%	<1%	<1%
Detroit Tigers	AL Central	66-96	28-44	<1%	<1%	<1%
Chicago Cubs	NL Central	67-95	28-45	<1%	<1%	<1%
Colorado Rockies	NL West	67-95	31-42	<1%	<1%	<1%
Washington Nationals	NL East	63-99	27-48	<1%	<1%	<1%
Pittsburgh Pirates	NL Central	65-97	29-43	<1%	<1%	<1%
Kansas City Royals	AL Central	63-99	26-45	<1%	<1%	<1%
Oakland Athletics	AL West	59-103	25-49	<1%	<1%	<1%